Market Regimes
Trend, range, volatility, and correlation regimes, plus the playbooks for each.
10 chapters · 1.2 hr total
- 01
Bull vs Bear Cycles in Crypto: How to Tell Which One You're In
Crypto moves in long multi-year cycles between bull and bear regimes. Identifying the regime correctly affects every trade, every position size, every time horizon.
8 min read
- 02
Accumulation and Distribution: The Quiet Phases Where Cycles Are Decided
The biggest moves in crypto are made during the quiet phases when nobody is watching. Recognizing accumulation and distribution is what positions you for the next cycle's gains.
8 min read
- 03
Trending vs Ranging Markets: The Most Important Regime Distinction Day-to-Day
Most strategies work in one regime and fail in the other. Knowing which one you're in determines whether to follow trends or fade extremes.
7 min read
- 04
Volatility Regimes: Why the Same Strategy Behaves Differently in Calm vs Wild Markets
Volatility isn't just price movement size, it's a regime that changes which strategies work, what stops mean, and how big positions should be.
7 min read
- 05
Anatomy of a Crypto Cycle: The Pattern That Has Repeated (Approximately) Since 2013
Crypto has gone through three full multi-year cycles. The patterns aren't identical, but they rhyme, and recognizing the structure tells you a lot about where you might be.
8 min read
- 06
Bitcoin Halving Cycles: How They Affect Markets (And What's Often Misread)
The Bitcoin halving cuts new supply issuance every 4 years. Its effects on markets are real but more nuanced than the popular '18 months later = top' framing suggests.
7 min read
- 07
Macro Correlation Regimes: When Crypto Trades Like Tech and When It Doesn't
Crypto's correlation to traditional assets isn't constant, it shifts with macro conditions. Knowing which regime you're in tells you which signals matter.
7 min read
- 08
Sector Rotation in Crypto: How Capital Flows Between BTC, ETH, and Alts
Capital rotates through crypto sectors in identifiable patterns. Reading the rotation tells you which categories are about to move and which are about to underperform.
7 min read
- 09
Alt Season Mechanics: What Drives the Period When Altcoins Outperform Bitcoin
Alt season is the phase when capital rotates from BTC into alts and many alts deliver outsized returns. Understanding the mechanics tells you when it's coming and when it's ending.
7 min read
- 10
Regime Detection Tools: A Practical Toolkit for Knowing Where You Are
Identifying the regime requires combining multiple signals. Here's the practical toolkit, the specific indicators, dashboards, and habits that give you a defensible read.
7 min read