On-chain Analysis
Reading the public ledger: exchange flows, MVRV, NUPL, and smart money.
10 chapters · 1.3 hr total
- 01
Reading On-Chain Data: The Layer Most Crypto Traders Never Look At
Every transaction on a public blockchain is auditable forever. That data, read well, gives you signals no other market has, but only if you know what to look for.
8 min read
- 02
Exchange Flows: Reading the Movement of Coins On and Off Exchanges
Net flow to exchanges is the simplest, most actionable on-chain signal. Persistent inflows are bearish; persistent outflows are bullish. Here's how to read it well.
7 min read
- 03
MVRV Explained: The Most Useful On-Chain Valuation Metric
MVRV compares market price to the average price holders actually paid. It's one of the cleanest cycle indicators in crypto, when read in historical context.
8 min read
- 04
NUPL Explained: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss as a Cycle Sentiment Map
NUPL turns aggregate holder PnL into a sentiment band that maps cleanly onto cycle phases, capitulation, hope, optimism, belief, euphoria. Useful when read carefully.
7 min read
- 05
Smart Money Tracking: Following the Wallets That Tend to Be Right
Some addresses consistently buy lows, sell highs, and front-run narratives. Tracking them well is real edge, chasing them blindly is how you get exit liquidity'd.
8 min read
- 06
Whale Watching: Reading the Largest Holders Without Getting Played
Whale wallets move markets, but their visibility makes them prime targets for fakeouts and manipulation. Reading them carefully separates signal from theater.
7 min read
- 07
Holder Cohorts: Long-Term vs Short-Term Holders and What Their Behavior Reveals
Splitting supply by how long it's been held shows you which group is currently driving price. LTH and STH behave very differently, knowing the difference is real edge.
8 min read
- 08
Etherscan and Block Explorers: How to Read Raw On-Chain Data
Etherscan is the ground truth for every Ethereum transaction. Knowing how to navigate it lets you verify any claim, audit any wallet, and bypass aggregator interpretations.
8 min read
- 09
On-Chain vs Price: When They Agree, When They Diverge, and What It Means
On-chain data and price action usually move together, but the moments they don't are some of the highest-information situations in crypto trading.
7 min read
- 10
What On-Chain Data Can't Tell You (And the Risks of Over-Trusting It)
On-chain data is powerful but partial. Knowing exactly what it misses, derivatives, OTC, off-chain context, protects you from confidently misreading the market.
8 min read